Suedfeld, Peter; Ward, Lawrence M. 1976. Dark trends: Psychology, science fiction, and the ominous consensus. Futures 8(1): 22-39. DOI: 10.1016/0016-3287(76)90094-X [ScienceDirect]
Many science fiction authors predict that the world will continue moving towards an environment characterised by a combination of high population density and advanced technology. Psychologists and writers of fiction both appear to be in general agreement that such an environment will result in an information overload, intolerable time pressures, overwork for a minority with a lack of meaningful work for the majority, and the loss of privacy and autonomy. Futurists should note the agreement between artistic vision and scientific research - that human civilisation appears to be moving towards conditions that are unpleasant and deleterious. (Suedfeld; Ward 1976: 22)
Almost half a century later this is pretty much spot-on.
Other authors arrive at "solutions" leading to iron dictatorships, conformist ant-hills of humanity, or to dull and declining socialisms. (Suedfeld; Ward 1976: 23)
The City and the Stars would be an example of the conformist ant-hill.
Another common pathway would be that of "pure thought", from the conceptual memory of the long-term memory, to the short-term memory, and the central processing unit and back to the long-term memory and so on around the cycle again and again. In these ways, information is processed, stored and utilised in further processing and in behaviour as the human organism makes its way through a complex environment. (Suedfeld; Ward 1976: 25)
Conceptual thought - pure of perceptual information.
[...] and better cacess to microminiaturised information storage, particularly via cleverly programmed library computers; [...] (Suedfeld; Ward 1976: 26)
SD cards?
Stanley Milgram argues that these changes are already happening in large cities, and that they lead to some adverse social effects: a tendency of bystanders to ignore people in trouble, a tendency for social relationships to be more superficial, and the growth of monstrous bureaucracies that rigidly control some aspects of life. (Suedfeld; Ward 1976: 26)
These were the decades when overpopulation was a serious concern. Social relationships are seemingly always becoming more superficial.
But high technology/high population demands long-term thinking about sources for raw materials, disposal of radioactive wastes with half-lives of thousands of years, places for more billions of people to live, etc. We need practice in long-term thinking, which is difficult because of our short life-spans. (Suedfeld; Ward 1976: 28)
Curse these short-lived bodies.
Science fiction is far ahead of science and government here. For example, Isaac Asimov has written a trilogy of novels in which a mathematical sociopsychologist predicts the general course of a galactic civilisation for several thousand years. And Olaf Stapledon, in his classic Last and First Men, discusses the entire evolutionary history of the human race over a time span of several million years. "Serious" predictions on an extended scale is beginning to be done, but will continue to be inhibited by the average person's limited time horizon. Perhaps longer life-spans will after this situation; but it is conceivable that this function too will devolve to computers, which have no built-in time horizon, since they can consider time as merely another variable. (Suedfeld; Ward 1976: 28)
This "several million years" is an underestimation. Humankind devolves into various animals for 200 million years, and then into bipedal humanoids again, from a rabbit-like creature.
In a story that won the Hugo Award, Harlan Ellison takes this possibility to extremes and portrays a world where everybody begins with a fixed lifetime. Every second that he is late, for business, recreation, or anything, si deducted from this allotted span. Time is kept by the "Tictockman"; when a person's late time equals the time he has left to live, he si terminated. (Suedfeld; Ward 1976: 28)
Most science fiction writers end their books at the point where the revolt of the masses has succeeded or failed, and leave it up to the reader to go on from there. An exception is Reynolds. He predicts that, freed of the necessity to work, people will be able to pursue their own destinies in whatever way they choose, supported by the machines and by those who wish to work in the few remaining jobs as their own expression of their potentialities. This is very close to Fuller's ideal world. However, as Fuller points out, this may only happen through an educational revolution and a general reorganisation of the world system. (Suedfeld; Ward 1976: 30)
Only after the revolution...
Western civilisation, the source of most science fiction writers as well as of most professional psychologists, treats an intermediate level of togetherness not only as optimal, but implicitly as if it were the only level that is tolerable. Writers from this background have almost without thinking taken it as axiomatic that it is unpleasant both to be constantly isolated and to be constantly in the company of others. This is very much a culture-bound delusion: other cultures have found benefits both in solitude and in close and constant interaction. (Suedfeld; Ward 1976: 31)
- Suedfeld, P. 1974. Social isolation: A case for interdisciplinary research. Canadian Psychologist 15(1): 1-15. DOI: 10.1037/h0081737
- Draper, P. 1973. Cwroding among hunter-gatherers: The !King Bushmen. Science 182: 301-303. [University of Nebraska Lincoln]
Many science fiction writers have posited that the combination of high technology and extremely low density would lead to electronic communication networks that replicate personal interaction as closely as possible without the actual physical presence of the other. There appears to be no particular reason why a similar arrangement cannot be set up in the high/high quadrant. That is, even when population density is high, individuals to a great extent can be confined to a small space, with very little face-to-face interaction, if necessary goods, services, and electronic communications are delivered to each living area. (Suedfeld; Ward 1976: 31)
Peter Suedfeld is still alive and kicking, so he, too, experienced Zoom during the pandemic.
Another solution is to accept the crowding and eliminate the desire for privacy. This requires a social instead of a technological resolution, particularly in the area of interpersonal norms. Silverberg's urbmon is an outstanding example of this type of approach. The gigantic edifice which comprises the urbmon has a vertically structured social as well as geographical hierarchy: lower levels of the building house the lower socioeconomic strata of society. Within each level, families are allocated individual quarters. However, there is a considerable amount of mobility, including a positive social norm for males roaming at night in search of sexual adventure. Promiscuity as well as fertility are valued. Privacy is taboo, and those who desire it are well advised to suppress and hide their need. Possessiveness and secrecy are evils; people who are unable to tolerate or to adjust to these conditions are disposed of. (Suedfeld; Ward 1976: 31)
The description of Urban Monads reads just like Stapledon's three-mile-high pylons, separated by agricultural land.
- Silverberg, R. 1971. The World Inside. Garden City, NY: Doubleday.
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